What's up, everyone? We've got something special for you today Both Mati Greenspan and Eric Crown will be joining me to discuss the current state of the market
Long term predictions and much more My name is Jackson and welcome to this week's market predictions So let's tackle the big kahuna first – bitcoin In Monday's crypto markets, Mati talked about how the 200 day moving average is nearing an intersection with Bitcoin's actual price Will that intersection take place
Go ahead, Eric That's all you, man OK So I'm not I'm not necessarily clear on the situation You're talking about the actual price crossing the 200, the 200 day moving average
It's nowhere near a price action right now, as far as I can see It's literally below nine thousand bucks Right Right So, yeah, that's exactly what I've got here
The 200 day moving average is just above eight thousand and it's rising fast So the case here is that many people have called this whole area descending triangle So if we do get a break below, let's say, 9000 ish, then we could see the moving average coming into act as support That's case A, case B would be, let's say if prices continue sideways, eventually the moving average itself will come up to provide this support I see what you're saying there
Yeah So here's the thing is that if Bitcoin does break below this current structure, like let's call it ninety five hundred, I'll put on my my drawing tools right here Yeah The 200 simple is going to be a target It's obviously gonna be coming into that eighty five hundred level
You know, kind of that current trajectory which would kind of line up with that same gap that we saw in price action from CMEs and like what was it middle of July Sorry Middle of June perhaps But actually I don't believe if we were to actually break down, which I'm not saying that we are, but if we were to break down, I would actually be looking at this to go a little bit lower than that, actually significantly lower than that All the way down into the upper six thousand is technically where this measure move would suggest
You know, I do agree with you that the that the longer that bitcoin goes sideways here, the more that these moving averages have to catch up But that's not always a good thing You know, we're looking at everything kind of condense on each other right now, which tells us that we're still consolidating, but we're not really giving a direction based off that until we break one of the major levels to me If we were to break below this ninety four ninety five hundred ish level right here, also the 3-8-2 Fibonacci retracement on this formation, we're not just going to be breaking down to go down to the 200 simple or 200 exponential we're we're gonna be going down much, much further This is a complete change in behavior as far as I'm concerned, at the higher time frames indicating a complete, you know, new phase going on
I mean, this has been so far a relatively constructive consolidation within this region, which would, you know, give the give the odds a little bit more in the favor of the bulls right now Well, the second that we break formation is the second that I turn into an actual bear and this starts to look like a bull trap And that's going to set us up I mean, yes For a move down here, most likely
And then I would genuinely think actually probably lower after that as well But I would want to take a once at a time Again, this is with the assumption that we actually do break down below that region Myself, I think that this I just have a feeling it does pull through, even though that's not necessarily too much based on what you know, you know, based on much But at the end of the day man I need to see these levels broken and it's not even this upper level right here that really does it for me, for the bulls at eleven-four even though it is kind of lined up with this sub resistance trend line and also the nought point five fib, we need to get a higher high over this twelve thousand dollar tick right here before anything actually changes for me
Other than that, I kind of just look at it as a sloppy but somewhat healthy crypto consolidation in the way that these cryptos like to play them out And until we get resolution on this and I think that we get resolution on this next week or two, you know, trading in the middle range is just just very, very difficult You know, there's very little opportunity in this range right here What do you think about that, Mati? Do you agree with him? Yeah, I mean, it sounds quite complicated, but I think the end result here is that we both agree that Bitcoin is in a healthy consolidation also So you would be so you would be bullish on this formation right here, Mati? Well, at the moment, I've reduced most of the cryptos from my portfolio overall
I got a little bit bullish on the alt coins this morning because of that recent alt window, as they've been calling it But other than that, I want to see movement before I go in heavy Yeah One hundred percent I've actually done the exact same thing this past week, reduced most my positions
Small Very, very, very, very, very small Long exposure right now But size right now is the time to be waiting, in my opinion I do think that we see a big move like an actual massive move in the next week
We may Maybe we can have some like that Things are shaping up right now But why? I mean, what Based on what do you say that we have to get? Because, look, in my experience, I mean, look, it could break down
It could break up It could go sideways for another year Why would you say that within the next week there would be a massive movement? Okay So there's a few reasons right here First and foremost, the easiest one is just that this information right here does have an apex coming in
You know what, like early October and typically those things like to break when they're about 60 You know, you know, 70 to 75 percent full right? So that'd put it somewhere right around this region right here, which is actually end of this week Not only that, but looking at volumes, the nature of this formation, we are rapidly declining We've been declining for the last three months, which does suggest that we are right around the corner from resolution as this just has very little way to go as well Not only that, but most importantly, perhaps, is the historical volatility percentile, which is down, which has been downtrend and ever since our fourteen thousand are high
And this is getting this Of course, if you're familiar with volatility, this is designed to contract and expand And of course, when we get down to a level like this, which is a level that we really only see, you know, a few times in history, I mean, the last thing that we saw a level like this was in Mark or sorry, May before that massive explosion from the 5000 dollar base, you know, almost to 2Xing in the next week and a half, two weeks You know, we we will see a big move relatively soon just based off some like this So you already began to touch on our next question, which is that yesterday the United States Federal Reserve made another decision to lower interest rates, which will pump more than fifty three billion dollars into the U
S economy BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes, tweeted today quantitative easing forever is coming once the Fed gets religion again Get ready for hashtag Bitcoin twenty thousand What exactly does he mean by quantitative easing forever? And do you agree with Hayes? Will Bitcoin be spurred on to twenty thousand dollars in light of this decision? The Federal Reserve is basically the world's largest player in the financial markets
Whatever they say or do has a direct impact across all acts, all assets that stocks commodities effects For the most part, crypto is rather uncorrelated with the rest of those markets But it seems like a lot of crypto analysts are already saying, including Erik here, is that as we go, those type of interest rate decisions will play a bigger role in Bitcoin's price action So far, we haven't seen any any point in history where a Federal Reserve announcement actually really moved the price of Bitcoin But as they go further down this cycle where they're easing and quantitative easing and lowering interest rates, it basically what it does is it makes money more readily available
And they're basically pushing lots and lots more money into the into the economy That money is mostly baseless So what it what it does is it has the effect of devaluing the US dollar, devaluing the euro
This is the currency wars that have been going on for the last decade or so, where every single country wants to push down the price of their currency as much as possible and devalue their own currency The idea is that the less value your currency has, the better it boosts your economy because more people will want to buy your stuff So if you if, let's say, the Japanese yen is lower, more people can buy Japanese goods at a cheaper rate So this is the currency wars Now, Bitcoin is the main benefactor of the currency wars because Bitcoin is designed to go up in value to have a very limited supply
And it doesn't they don't keep pushing more and more baseless bitcoins, but rather there's only 21 million coins that will ever be minted And in that case, it basically is a deflationary asset, whereas all of the other fiat currencies are extremely inflationary Right So I hear what you're saying on that And first and foremost, this rate cuts already been priced in
As long as the expectation is met and that's a quarter percent cut to the downside Now, I would push back on Mati's statement, while I do agree with most of what he said, that Bitcoin's uncorrelated with the traditional markets I strongly disagree with that And we can show this in mathematical way, actually I'll bring up screen share us one more time
So is a spy This is the major US US
industry You know, tracks SPX essentially And down in this bottom pane right here This purple histogram is actually a correlation coefficient matched up with spy price action versus bitcoin price action that you can see right here We're actually pretty we're we're actually relatively possibly correlated
Now, we have been on a downtrend for the last year or actually sorry, about half year or so But you can see over the history of time, you've been more correlated than not And more importantly, we can just do this by eye as well And I really push back on these It's not, you know
You know, not to be a cynic or anything like that, but just because this is not what we see at all in my opinion, and you can make the decision for yourself, but I'll put up Bitcoin's price action in a line chart back here, put it on log scale You can see just since the dawn of time for bitcoin, anytime the traditional market major indices are rallying any time that they're mostly bullish on the macro We're looking at a weekly time frame right here They're both rallying together Bitcoin typically tops a little bit first and then traditional market usually bottoms a little bit first, but they're moving together on the macro
So I push back on statements like that because we are going to see Bitcoin take a more primary role in kind of playing these sorts things out as I go back to my camera Now, still, the big thing there is that, you know, as time goes on, that is the big kind of switch that I think goes on in people's head that makes them realize Bitcoin's value As Mati said, when you have governments essentially printing more money, which devalues your currency, that you've been, you know, holding a bank and then you start seeing your bank is now charging you interest When we go into negative rates, which is prior, you know, not too long in the distant future, as we've seen in other first world countries already do this You know, Japan being one of Germany being another, I believe, you know, people's brains are gonna start to switch on, I'd imagine, and start to see Bitcoin
Oh, this is this is something that actually, you know, the the supply is limited, whereas my you know, my fiat currency keeps on going down And and that's when you know, that's when it starts to make sense for people to actually adopt, you know, in a real way, this this asset, in my opinion So you think 20000 is possible? I think 20000 is possible, yes It's really going to come I mean, it's we're still kind of an experimental phase
At the end of the day, it's still an extremely small market, but 20000 Very much possible Yes, absolutely So I wanted to just point out, Eric, that correlation does not necessarily equal causation And I get what you're saying, that Bitcoin and the stock market have been moving in the same direction
On a macro level, and I do believe that the cause for the most part has been federal easing over the last 10 years But what we need to really remember is that Bitcoin is only about 10 years old So we've never actually been in a situation where we've seen a bear market in the stocks and what kind of effect that might have on Bitcoin So I think it's to make those kind of statements that that there's kind of a macro correlation I think that we're still a little bit early this chart actually, as you could say, it's a little bit early
But I do believe 10, 10 years is pretty good We've gone through a few hefty correction in the stock market, but No, no Right Well, that we've never seen a dip in in in the Dow Jones of more than 10, 20 percent
Right Right But there's been corrections It moves with it On the macro, with corrections, we're starting to see what happens in a bear market, obviously
But that right now is you know, it's just now really gone through that point But but Bitcoin has never done before is actually react to a Fed statement And if you look at it on the day-to-day, I'm not sure that's true I mean, no correlation coefficient is negative Negative point 2, which is almost nonexistent, meaning that on a day to day level, if the stock market goes up or the stock market goes down on wait, no effect whatsoever on that
This is disingenuous On a day to day level You're not talking about trend You're talking about day to day activity, which is going to be uncorrelated We need to look at the macro
We need to look at trends, which is going to be shown by higher time frames, not a daily Oh, well, you just pointed out the Federal Reserve is likely to be a catalyst for a Bitcoin movement Yeah So that's a day to day markets No, but these get priced in right before way before we know about these meetings, way in advance
The rate cut has been known about for like a month, maybe two months in advance These things are these things are known kind of for the most part And it's only deviations from that is the expectation, absolute certainty only over the last week It's been forecasted about two weeks ago So if you're what you're saying is correct that the Fed is going to be a catalyst for a huge Bitcoin movement, by your own logic
It should have happened already No What you saw, if you're going to talk about happened before already than what you're seeing is a race over the last look Well, over the last few years really to decrease interest rates Right
Well, what have we seen in the last six, seven months? Over the last few years, 20, 18 was actually a rate increase cycle The Fed has only flip flopped on their on their policy Right Within the last six months Yes
OK In the last six months What has Bitcoin done in the last six months? I can show you on It's not just where Bitcoin has literally more than 4 Xed in the last six months as they as they decline rates each and every time No, no, no
What I'm saying is over the last six months, they've been increasing They've been increasing in their interest rate So here we can see So since 2016, they've been on a tightening cycle and only very, very recently Last month, they decreased their interest rate for the first time since the financial crisis
That's like within the last month or two Correct For that, we take the risk Hold on It's not just the US
The rest the world has been has been taking down their rates, but we sell a lot So let's not just focus on the US because the US does not make up the whole market Well, there are the 500 pound gorilla
But for your sake we'll continue Maybe, maybe not You know that Japan's a major player, China's major player It's a world market man We can't really say that the US, you know, decides for the world
The world in general has been lowering interest rates And I'm sure that you would agree with that Over the last you know, over the last six months, for sure You know Absolutely
So to me, that is the actual catalyst itself Once those expectations come around, that's when the catalyst happens So we've already seen most of this move precipitated from that What's happening now is we're waiting to see the next sort of actual actions if they do match up in any sort of Like I said, any sort of deviation from that expectation of a quarter rate percent cut is going to be met by, you know, violent swings
If we just cut about a quarter percent prior, I can see all that much until the next sort of, you know, you know, phase I guess begins Since we're talking about price forecasts, what are your long term predictions about where Bitcoin's price will be by the end of, let's say, this year? Oh, my I look, my answer hasn't changed I try to shy away from price predictions I don't know the future
Anything can happen So between 100 dollars and a million Nice I like it I like it
Okay, so week I can go back in this screenshot for a second here I'll give Kind of like a bearish prediction And in a bullish prediction, this is expect a move with regards to historical volatility I'm a huge believer in volatility
And in this case, we can kind of come up with ranges So the way that the way to look at this right now is we are squeezing it so damn hard That huge move is is around the corner I'd still stick with what I've said in about a week to a week and a half And then the way that we can kind of goose us around and actually get the probabilities for the end of year is I'll go in right here and we can do
How many days until the end of the year? Maybe what we have got another 4 months or three months or something like that So it's gonna be around like maybe a hundred twenty days perhaps And then we come up with these ranges They're not gonna be all that helpful But if we were to come up with like the most what, you know, the most likely range by end of year, you know, to the upside, we're probably looking somewhere right around like 12000, 13000 to that down
So we probably looking somewhere around 8000 You know, it's closing around end of year I don't really have a strong opinion other than that, you know, I'd still be waiting for resolution on, you know, on this hopeful formation right here It's same thing that we spoke about earlier I know it's not like too sexy to talk about, but unfortunately, that's as far as like being a legitimate trader
It's really all you can do You know, an analyst can tell you exactly what's going to happen, but they don't have any sort of legitimate What's it called skin in the game So I would kind of back off as well as Mati and say, hey, man, if we break to the upside of that formation, I'll be looking for a closing price End of year, probably around 13000 if we break to the downside
I'll be looking somewhere around, maybe a thousand of you Much, much more narrow range than mine Fair enough, so alt coins are looking very bullish at the moment While Bitcoin seems to have stagnated in the mid low ten thousands Google Trends show that the term bitcoin is less popular now than at any time since April 2019
Is apathy toward bitcoin spurring on interest in alt coins? Generally speaking, bitcoin is not moving very much and you do see a lot of progression, especially in a lot of these alt coin networks So yeah Yeah You know, I think I think that most all to have some upside here, we've been saying this for the last week and a half, two weeks now I think that they have some more upside
You know, as far as like the reason for it is they're like apathy towards Bitcoin I don't know about that And, you know, I think we're just kind of going through the cycles really well It seems to me from what I've looked at in this whole cryptos, fears that alt coins do best when Bitcoin is mostly sideways and bitcoin is as about as sideways as you can get right now So
So that's going to benefit our side The alt coins the most, my opinion as far as like people's general attitude towards them I mean, it's hard to call something bullish after a little We've still been down about 80 to 90 percent off their highs But I do think that they have some upside here
I do think that they get some continuation looking at Ethereum in like one right now They both look like they both look like they once more to me Other naturally have too much I'll say I don't really spend too much time actually looking at alt coins, actually So I know, Eric, you don't deal as much with alt coins
But Mati, do you have any predictions about where Ethereum or Ripples XRP price might be at the end of the year as well? My same predictions, my friend I don't make them I just look it when when you're trading And a lot of people like to focus on predictions and price targets that that's not really my style My style is allocation
Tell me how much percentage of your portfolio is in each specific alt coin that's going to give you a much better, much more robust, robust way to trade So for me, it's all about diversification And when you see a sign a kind of an opportunity, I don't know where where Ripples going to or xRP is going to end up by the end of the year And I really don't care I see some movement
I feel that there is momentum I'll allocate another half a percent or 1 percent of my portfolio That's really all there is to it When one, the momentum stops, whenever that may be I'll take some of the profits off the table
How do you feel about that, Eric? Do you agree with what Mati just said in his view on alt coins? Yeah, absolutely I think, Marty, actually, I completely nailed something that I think is so beautiful And that is people want predictions People want all that good stuff But as far as trading goes, you don't really need predictions to make money
That's not what trading really is You know, I know it's sexy and it gets the views and everything like that I guess ff I had to call an end, you know, an end of year price for what? What did you want? Like Ripple and Ethereum Ethereum, a prob probably hanging around like that You earn a dollar mark ripple probably around like the 30 cent mark
You know, if I had to guess again, it's going to really to me it matters most what bitcoin does first Bitcoin sets the pace and then the alt coins fall Bitcoin breaks down here Then the alt coin market price goes up and probably goes back down to the gutter at bitcoin breaks up here Then they get hurt versus satoshis, but they'll likely benefit versus U
S dollar And that's kind of where I'd see it, maybe end of year, some like that So even though Bitcoin is trading sideways right now and alt coins seem to be getting bullish or being more volatile, and you still think that alt coins will be following Bitcoin's lead once bitcoin starts moving again? For now, yeah, we still are in a pretty immature market It's still extremely low markup
We're dealing with literally less than a quarter trillion, which is nothing for the whole crypto space and mostly things they're just gonna they're likely to follow bitcoin If you look at the whole on the you know, on the whole most things You know, if you just had to take a gander at it are gonna be doing whatever Bitcoin does in a slightly more emotional way You know, on the macro, I would disagree with you there Look at as it sits, either XRP and several others are up double digits, 20 percent over the last week
Whereas Bitcoin has been largely flat And I think that is that dynamic even continues for another day You're gonna have people selling Bitcoin to try and catch those moves and the alt coins and tellme Do you know about Hold on
Why not? Let's just think this one through for a second here How much did Bitcoin double or how much did Bitcoin go up from its December lows? You know, off the top of my head, one hundred and fifty percent, no too much more than they had for for about a 4 X, about a 4 X little bit more than a 4 X went from about thirty one hundred to almost fourteen thousand How much has Ripple gone up in that time? Well, we can put it on the chart real quick And it's not it's not difficult, right? It's not going to be anywhere near that for OK
So it's what I'm getting now We're looking at two hundred ish percent Two hundred and twenty percent for like going about the same Binance Coin is up three hundred and eighty four percent, whereas XRP is only up eleven percent So look, if people all of a sudden say, hey, I don't know, XRP has been underperforming and it's do a come up-ins, I would not it would not be far fetched for just people to sell a little bit of their bitcoin and push that into X RP
or for the other or for four or the other way People could say, hey, look Litecoin zooming again It's been performing fantastically this year Let me get some more of that or reallocate that in my portfolio And that's what I've done a little bit this morning
Bitcoin is no longer the top top crypto in my portfolio as of today And if that situation continues, I'll get even more aggressive on the old coins Yeah Fair enough I I I'm not necessarily sure where you're getting those numbers from them from though Bitcoin's up 300 percent, Bitcoins up three and a 50 percent from where it bottomed out to where it is right now
Litecoin is up 250 percent and ripples up 30 percent from its from its December lows So I argue with you Right Right So my point is, is that on the macro, you know, Bitcoin is still the major gainer, still kind of sets the pace
And then the alt coins, you know, they they just come out like a later date From what I see right now, can that change in the future? Absolutely But like I said, we're still pretty pretty small market here In general, I would agree with you All I'm saying is that if this situation continues like it has over the last week, if it continues another day or two, then you could probably expect some money to come out of bitcoin in order to fund some of those alt coin possession
Oh, yeah Yeah, absolutely Absolutely And in that case, you would get a divergence rather than rather than something going in the same direction But past performance is not an indication of future results
Right Thank you, everyone, for watching That was Mati Greenspan and Eric Crown joining me on this week's market predictions My name is Jackson and always remember to Like Subscribe and Hodl Cointelegraph – Like Subscribe and Hodl
