modern humans view as a linear phenomenon a steady march of progress from a worst past to an improved future however life doesn't progress linearly instead it follows a natural rhythm a circle of life if you will practically speaking days months and years are simply convenient names given to the observable cycles in astronomy the earth rotating on an axis the moon around our earth and the earth circumnavigating the sun spring summer fall and winter life and death the carbon cycle the water cycle we're surrounded by natural cycles the wisdom of cycles is embedded in modern culture represented by common phrases like history doesn't repeat but it rhymes and there are decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen ancient man observed a human cycle called ceculum which essentially means a long human life or roughly 90 years the original meaning was the amount of time between an event happening and when everyone who experienced that event had died at that point a new circulum would start each 90-year period secular can be divided into four stages each lasting approximately 22 years these turnings are often represented by the seasons or represented by the stages of life namely youth young adulthood midlife and old age the four generational archetypes each turning has a well-defined mood that produces a well-defined generation of people each generation embodies one of the four archetypes that appear in a specific repeating order the full cycle takes roughly 90 years or one full saculum each archetype follows a similar script throughout history prophet baby boomers principled yet narcissistic nomad gen x practical yet unfeeling hero millennials competent yet unreflective artist ginzy caring yet indecisive these generational trends are a natural emergent human phenomenon we have well-defined stages of life and predictable human characteristics interestingly we can observe this cycle pattern going back 500 plus years there is a symbolic relationship between history and generations the historic moment imprints itself onto the new generation then that generation grows up it changes history each circulum is made up of four turnings just as generations follow cyclical patterns each 90-year sacrum is composed of four well-defined stages called turnings that dictate how society responds to events each turning is defined by the constellation of general archetypes in respective stages of life are the hero archetypes still children or middle-aged managers are profits coming of age or are they elders controlling politics first turning rebirth spring 1946 to 1964 second turning revolution summer 1964-1984 third turning unraveling fall 1984-2008 fourth turning crisis winter 2008-2030 the two most potent times in history are when prophets and heroes enter adulthood prophets come of age in second turnings and cause revolution throughout these generational cycles history oscillates between classical opposing forces capital versus labor liberty versus equality isolationism versus expansionism are some generations better than others the short answer is no each generation has strengths and weaknesses that must be balanced out by the others this cycle serves as a guard rail ensuring humanity doesn't spiral out of control if the profit archetype is in power too long society would decay and nothing would be built because everyone is selfishly focused on their own interior world sound familiar we are in the current cycle first turning the american high 1946-1964 second turning conscious revolution 1964-1984 third turning culture wars 1984-2008 fourth turning millennial crisis 2008-2030 since 2008 america has been in the fourth turning which is the final stage in a roughly 90-year cycle in order to set the context let's rewind to the beginning of our current cycle known as the millennial sacrum first turning the great american high 1946-1964 the lost generation enters elderhood gi generation enters midlife silent generation enters young adulthood boomers enter childhood our current cycle began as we wrapped up world war ii and america ascended to a global superpower everyone's grown tired of fighting civic duty reaches a peak as we rebuild back home middle class grew and prospered increased peacetime government budgets were uncontroversial second turning conscious revolution 1964-1984 gi generation enters elderhood silent enters midlife boomers enter young adulthood gen xers inter-childhood kicked off with urban riots in campus protest supercharged by anti-vietnam war sentiment led by a rebellious youth boomers led the revolution they clashed with the bland leave it the beaver culture lacking anything resembling spirituality this gave rise to feminist environmentalist and black power movements third turning culture wars 1984-2007 silent enter elderhood boomers enter midlife gen x enter young adulthood millennials enter childhood an unraveling begins as society embraces the liberating cultural forces let loose by the boomer-led conscious revolution of the psychedelic 60s personal satisfaction is high a few national problems demand immediate action public is concerned about widening inequality civic duty declines and culture begins to diverge into competing value camps fourth turning millennial crisis 2008 to 2030
boomers enter elderhood gen x enters midlife millennials enter young adulthood zoomers enter childhood the 2008-2009 global financial crisis kicked off the millennial crisis and the population finally demanded change occupy wall street movement surged obama took office campaigning on hope and change society shifts away from individualism and towards collectivism marked by the rise of social justice warriors cancel culture and policing speech the crisis heats up in 2020 with a coveted pandemic widespread economic depression and riots erupting on the streets anatomy of a fourth turning crisis during fourth turnings the old social order combusts and gives birth to something entirely new welcome to winter a time of fire and ice the supply of social order is still falling but the demand for order is steadily rising although not required fourth turnings historically end with a total war while fourth turnings are not fun this is not a doom and gloom prophecy as society we need these moments of crisis they serve as brush fires to clean out the decrepit institutions to make way for new growth this generates buy-in from young people out with the old and in with anew optimistically it's a regenerative process allowing the cycle to continue morphology of a crisis fourth turning catalyst 2008 each crisis begins with an event that produces a sudden shift in the mood 2008 global financial crisis occupy wall street and obama's open change regeneracy 2012 once catalyzed society finds a new counter entropy that reunifies and re-energizes civic life rise of democratic socialism bernie sanders popularity equal pay for equal jobs climax 2021 a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new typically the climax is a war world war ii civil war etc but so far all we've experienced is the covet pandemic are we destined for war war on the virus loss of liberties riots economic inequalities becoming the hot topic and universal basic income begins resolution 2026 a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from the losers resolves the big public questions and establishes the new order this has yet to play out in our current cycle each crisis ends with a resolution period which historically speaking is three to five years before a crisis concludes we haven't hit the resolution yet but we'll know when the mood transforms into one of exhaustion relief and optimism we'll see a resurgence of faith in humanity and authority and society will yearn for a good and simple life today's oldest americans recognized this mood from the previous fourth turning during the great depression and world war ii cultural artifacts from the last russian period include somewhere over the rainbow and 1939 new york world's fair a better future on the horizon if we could only work together and make personal sacrifices lessons from the previous fourth turning 1929-1946 in response to the stock market crash of 1929 and the widespread economic hardship the move became one of desperation previously unthinkable policies gained popular support as roosevelt led the greatest expansion of the federal government ever known this was a natural consequence of implementing the federal reserve in 1913 social dynamics in the 1930s mirrored today both the 1930s and the 2010s produced declining fertility rates low migration to america declining violent crimes and many young people living with their parents the start of widespread deficit spending in 1933 roosevelt made gold illegal to hold for us citizens also in 1933 fdr kicked off his flagship program the new deal which focused on three things relief for the poor recovery of the economy and reforming the financial system to prevent another depression since the crisis was so severe progressive leaders and average americans demanded the fed take greater responsibility to help the poor and prevent poverty the 1940s and world war ii the period of tremendous fiscal spending continued into the 40s to support the war efforts debt levels reached their peak but were quickly resolved after world war ii due to america's relative position of strength and the new monetary system bretton woods analyzing our current fourth turning 2008-2030 considering what we know about the previous fourth turnings here are the key trends to follow as society seeks to deconstruct existing institutions domestic politics the rise of populism and everyone's a socialist 2020 marks the widest partisan gap since the 1930s people under 30 are predominantly left-leaning and those over 60 heavily lean right to make matters worse the most ideological generation in the history controls politics trust in the central government is the lowest it's been in the last century in 1961 80 percent of people said they trust the federal government to do the right thing in 2020 that number dropped to only 20 percent trust the federal government trump's 2016 political victory is a symptom of the crisis mood the people wanted change and trump successfully captured the mood with a successful drain the swamp campaign the rise of bernie can be explained in the same way the consolidation of power is guaranteed but if we're not careful we'll fall into totalitarianism as we're seeing around the world just like fdr in the 1930s america is doomed to repeat a decade of expanding the federal government in 2020 alone we saw universal basic income business bailouts yield curve control via qe and more will this be enough not a chance we're just getting warmed up before the decade is over modern monetary theory will run its course we'll see some combination of universal basic income college loan forgiveness free health care increased minimum wage and more the appetite for handouts will be insatiable populism and in many cases totalitarianism is rising all around the world look no further than maduro's venezuela duterte's philippines maldi's india jeez china the yellow vest movement in france and many more this points to a global synchronization of these demographic cycles since world war ii in addition this is the first time in history we've seen the world connected under a globally dominant reserve us currency dollar if every country is in a fourth turning simultaneously the results could be explosive third turnings produce relaxed borders increased international travel and waves of immigration fourth turnings reverse all that global trade as the percentage of global gdp peaked in 2008 and has been declining since the pendulum is swinging towards isolationism covid exposed our reliance on foreign imports especially from an increasingly hostile china politicians will respond by incentivizing manufacturers in america and the market will support it america's foreign policy will support global trade as long as it comes with no political baggage minimizing political baggage abroad is good for many things including the fact that trade is more profitable than war the shift isolationism will expose nations who are reliant on crucial foreign imports such as energy food and medicine combined with a slowing gdp and increasing sovereign debt nation states will flail in desperation expect more civil wars hyperinflation events deadly totalitarianism and regional conflicts soon after america gets plunged into a spending fiscal crisis marked by world war ii and covet 19 potentially another conflict in 2021 with powerless central banks the only option is massive government spending in the form of qe and ubi just like in the 1940s this setup indicates an inflationary period and a high risk of currency failures coming in the 2020s although we'll likely see a couple of years of deflation first this brings us to the key question what do we do with all the debt one option is a decade or two of austerity think high taxes and low government spending highly unlikely since there's no political will for austerity increased global gdp highly unlikely as the world is heading into a recession and the demographics are against us what about debt forgiveness since the fed owns most of the student loan debt they can simply press delete on their spreadsheet seems pretty likely under the circumstances and it would empower young people to start families and buy homes from boomers how about increasing taxes on the wealthy during the previous fourth turning the tax rate for the highest earners soared from 25 percent to almost 63 percent by 1937
this was known as soak the rich in the 30s and a similar sentiment is gaining steam in america today seems inevitable as millennials take power away from aging boomers our final option is to devalue the debt in real terms this would likely be accomplished by qualitative easing and increasing the broad money base the federal reserve will now have an unlimited budget to buy as many assets treasuries corporate debt and soon-to-be equities as necessary to keep interest rates down practically speaking that means anyone holding dollars or bonds will see negative real returns for the next decade again just like the 1940s at the same time the government will increase the broad money base with various forms of government spending and ubi what about hyperinflation as wheat currencies break down some will hyperinflate which draws more attention to bitcoin's value proposition how long before a nation state moves heavily into bitcoin venezuela already runs btc pay server iran gives tax incentives to minors marshall island tried launching their own ico the writing's on the wall judging by the incentives alone smaller nations will adopt bitcoin by 2030 likely sooner what about the united states although some bitcoiners believe we'll see hyperinflation with the usd i'm skeptical the usd is still in high demand globally and the us has a relatively strong economy with relatively sound demographics the usd won't hyperinflate this decade but it will be majorly devalued bitcoin is the life raft during the great fiat flood bitcoin is our best hope for a peaceful transition to a new financial system individuals can opt out of their local currency by joining the bitcoin life raft protect purchasing power rather than go down with the sinking ship that is their state this reduces conflict risk as fewer citizens become desperate as currencies collapse and resources become scarce nations will become desperate which often leads to bloody conflict adopting bitcoin early means states and individuals will benefit from bitcoin's price appreciation increased economic opportunity and a head start in a new paradigm in some cases this may de-escalate conflicts by minimizing fallout from failed states let me know what you guys think about 4th turning is bitcoin the answer leave your thoughts in the comments section below hit that like button and subscribe
