hey what's going on guys jason jenkins um monthly chart there's a lot of room for this cycle to come down so the long-term trend is still bullish so there's a couple things so this monthly monthly cycle has a lot of room to come down and i did a bunch of work last week if you guys want to check the videos uh but but if you caught it if you're on the cycle edge letter you're going to see the same things essentially though that this this um this latest monthly 86 count doesn't turn and doesn't bottom until december so in between now and then because it's a it's a it's a longer term wave um where i'm going to hit on some weekly and daily stuff to kind of trade around and what to watch for but point being is that this monthly cycle can come all the way back in and that would line up pretty well with the 8
6 count as far as the oscillator goes so just eyeballing that that comes into the end of the year that would be well it'd be a hell of a call but more importantly it's going to be tricky to trade and it's probably would flush a lot of weak hands out so that's the monthly oh one more thing i've talked about this but i'll reiterate three count is typical for a normal kind of pullback um after a very steep move so that puts you into june only two two um down candles you could even argue that this was a neutral candle so maybe that puts you into july but i do think just from experience after such a momentous energetic move it takes longer to work off that energy so when you have a drastic pullback you know there was decent amount of pain we went through 47 000 if you have another leg down which i'll talk about the levels in a second that that type of pain takes time to heal time heals price can consolidate um either through a bounce or reactionary bounce or via time and so we'll see what materializes the point being as i'm watching the two to three count put you into june july for the next turn we go to the weekly chart you'll see here also the fractal nature of the daily chart has pi line exactly where we held at 30 000 actually let me go to the futures let's do the daily i'll come back to the weekly because the week the daily will set up the weekly so the daily chart over here in futures i've been talking about the 86 cycle this doesn't include the weekend data obviously because the futures market's closed but still watching 30 000 this is major major major if you break that a lot of technicians and you break this low there they won't have the pi line in this cyclical level at twenty four thousand twenty five thousand this is something that we developed i i discovered it it's an amazing edge pie holds all the time it's more of a cyclical phenomenon it's not just something that's going to show up on the chart necessarily so that's this is what we're watching the cycle can come in next week more we've got to watch 30 000 as major you break that then all eyes on the pie line if you if you guys are following us in our model twenty four thousand twenty five thousand now from there back to the weekly break that this this ebb and flow the the pivots that i care about here on the weekly chart that define the uptrend this is kind of where we broke out from twelve thousand i've talked about that that was on the turning point and um on the monthly cycle but this was a pivot low and pretty decent triangulation very technical but notice that the higher low is away from the bands so it doesn't define the uptrend the longer term trend on this particular time frame on the weekly just says this is a higher low this is a higher low this is a higher low this is a higher low all very momentous higher lows that mattered for the intermediate term trend and that's why i talked about if you broke 47 000 then you can get the move back to pi on the daily then you can test the bands but as far as the uptrend the long-term bull market this is this is clearly the pivot now you break that that leaves the door open for all types of there's just a lot of hot air below the market again if it's 24 25 doesn't hold and you're you're gonna get the retest of the 12 000 level you're going to get this retest to this breakout level that's the 200 maybe even you you go to eight right that's just the technical setup that's the odds that's the probability we know that from studying this stuff and back testing and just trading markets for 15 years is that when you break certain levels these are the next goal posts or areas to watch so i'm not making that call and again the point isn't to make a twelve thousand dollar btc call the point is that if you break this low you break that low that's where your risk is and i and you know and again let's not get too hung up on 24 25 000 either until you take out 30 that's the point and then on the upside i'll go to the intermediate term charts but i said that 40 000 was intermediate term pivot that's exactly where we struggled last week all right the daily chart i've kind of been over this daily chart here was the break right 47 i said if you break that the odds are much higher that you can move to the 200 and or the deeper pull back to a full pi cycle exactly where the market held and so now we're trapped between the longer term level pivot here at 30 and this series of lower highs on the intermediate term that's the underside of the 242 very technical when you go to the hourly charts hourly and four hour you can see the bands that the bands did a great job right so how you play it matters whether you're shorting if your broker allows you to do that or you're just hedging your longer term positions bf futures don't forget the now you can trade the micro futures that's mbt so we do a lot of work around that and these are all these these bounces to lower highs were opportunities to make sales you can see it in futures pretty good as far as the the cycles i highlighted in some some of the analysis and essentially all these highs all right these are short selling opportunities replaces the hedge boom make some money book some gains book some gains okay so just trying to trade multiple durations you can have a long-term opinion but why not make money in the near term and the short side and in the intermediate term okay just to hit on some alts i touched a little bit on matic and polka dot on fake friday so a lot of the a lot of the d5 a lot of these newer coins have just traded really well i mean they they outperformed some of the older coins i guess the old what i call major coins like ripple and you know litecoin but held the bands just because you went below it doesn't this is an area it's like a chain link fence you can press up against it we don't want to just get bearish when the bands are rising and you get below it this is this is an area so still making higher lows that i mean that's just still very bullish um very similar for polka dot sorry similar to the overall market we broke the pivot here in april okay and you're just going to have a lot to deal with before you turn the momentum back up you got to start making higher highs um but we're buying the teams we talked about if you get the same same type of thing you get that bounce to 40 000 on bitcoin then you're going to see the underside of some of these alt struggles so it's still a 15 to 25 range there ripple i didn't hide i didn't highlight last week it was it had a it outperformed in march and april and now it's lagging so what tends to happen with ripple is when it gets quiet and it underperforms it just seems like something happens and they pump it back up so if you settle into this 50 60 cent range if you like trade and ripple i mean we haven't really been a fan of the underlining idea um for a long time since we traded them that doesn't mean you can't it just because you don't like it as much as a different blockchain doesn't mean it's not worthy to trade so if you get back to 50 60 cents i'm a buyer resistance is up at 110 you can see it's a lot of similar price action finance i covered that in pretty much good detail friday um same thing be a buyer whether it's down here in front of 200 like the last time i pulled the trigger or even if you got the 160
it it is one of the best all coins out there since really this year so it's also had a nasty almost some of those chinese headlines that really came down hard so it's gonna there'll be a lot of back and forth just know that the edges are what they are and then up here 380 wasn't the place to chase you know the better spot was to be buying 240 and then lighting up on some so you still have a all these shirts are the same you got to get the bands back bullish before any type of really real momentum you're going to have a lot of back and forth so just trade it the daily cycle can come in more um aetherium i laid this out and some analysis uh but you can see here this year ethereum's been the strongest the network effect we love so continually be a buyer the features are out now so we've been trading that around too i'll try to do some more work this week on bitcoin cash because sometimes when that sticks out what i mean by that is like if it widens out where it's kind of overbought relative to what bitcoin is doing i like shorting bitcoin cash and then being versus your long bitcoin kind of a nice pairs trade anyway guys uh this should be an exciting week uh coming in the month then in may uh i'll have some updates from my team my group and psychology as far as the traditional markets have a great rest of your long weekend and talk to you some in the morning you
